March Madness has finally arrived and before you fill out your final bracket, here are some stats and facts about March that you need to know. I'm not telling you who you should or should not bet, I am just giving you information that I find extremely usefull when creating a bracket.
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Bet the #1 seeds to win round 1:
First off, besides UMBC's unbelievable upset in 2018, Number 1 seeds are 143-1 since the creation of the Tournament. That is a 99.3% chance that the 1 seed will go on to the next round. 2018 was a fluke so don't even take the risk
15 seeds are a hassle:
2 Seeds have won 135 of 144 meetings against 15 seeds, giving them a 94%-win percentage. HOWEVER, don't be fooled by this number! Only nine 15 seeds have pulled off this upset, but 6 of these upsets have happened in the past 10 years. Most recent was last year's Oral Roberts team knocking off Ohio State. Two 15 seeds won in 2012, and then FGCU in 2013 and MTSU in 2016. So yes its a small chance, but it's happened 60% of the time the last 10 seasons. Might be worth a chance pick one this year!
14 seeds are no joke:
3 seeds have a 85% chance win rate in tournament history, but it seems like there is always a reasonable chance for a 14 seed upset. Just last Year, 3 seed Texas lost to 14 seed Abilene Christian. This stopped the 4 year streak of 3's beating 14's, but before that, 14 seeds have won 8 times in 10 years. This years 14 seeds are could also be the ones to pull off the upset. Colgate looks dangerous and could take Wisconsin off guard, and Yale just won the IVY league and have a great NBA prospect in Swain. I could see it happening!
A 13 seed WILL upset a 4 this year!
13 seeds only have a 22% chance to advance against the 4, but it seems like it happens at least once a year. In 2021 Ohio and North Texas both won, followed by UC Irvine in 2019, Marshall and Buffalo in 2018, Hawaii in 2016, La Salle in 2013, Ohio agian in 2012. Since 2001, 19 13 seeds have advanced. Its going to happen this year, so count on it!
12's/11's/10's are just under 50/50 to win:
This is crazy to think that seeds 10-12 have around a 40% chance to advance. Based on those statistics, around five 10-12 seeds will advance to the second round! Seventeen 12 seeds have won since 2010, that is every single year and then some! 11 seeds have won multiple times in the same tournament 9 times in the last 11 seasons., so find two 11 seeds you love and bet them! Oddly enough, 10 seeds are a little less common to win multiple times in a season compared to 11 seeds, but it is still worth a shot!
Bet 9 over 8:
These are the closest games in the tournament obviously, but 9 seeds have proven to win 51% of the time.
There always seems to be a double digit seed that sneaks their way into the sweet 16. Last yea
r 4 10+ seeds made it, including 15 seed Oral Roberts. Just some quick stats that stand out: 9 seeds have only a 10% chance to get to the sweet 16 while 13 seeds have a 19% chance, 12's have a 43% chance, 11's have a 44% chance, and 10's have a 40% chance. IDK what it is, but don't bet the 9 seed to make the sweet 16!
To make Elite 8:
No teams seeded 13 or above have reached the elite 8, so don't even think about picking a ridiculous upset. Save those for the earlier rounds! 1 and 2 seeds have an 81% and 71% chance to move on and then there is a steep decline. 9 and 8 seeds actually have a higher percentage to move on than do the 3 seeds. 10 and 11 seeds have a higher chance than the 4 and 5 seeds. Basically, if a high seed has made it this far, pick them over the 3's 4's and 5's.
To Reach Final 4:
Mayday, mayday!!! All hell breaks lose in the elite 8! 1 seeds are no longer the favorite to move on! 5 seeds have the highest percentage to make the final four at 78%, followed by 8 seeds at 63% and 4 seeds at 62%. 1 seeds only have a 59% chance to make the final 4 which is crazy. Obivously they have the most games played in elite 8 so have more data, but still I wouldn't expect the numbers to be skewed this much! No team 12 or higher has reached final 4.
To Reach Championship Game:
The stats come somewhat back to normal in the final 4. 6 seeds have the highest chance to make the finals at 67%, 3 seeds follows at 65% and then 1 seeds are at 61%. No seed 9 or higher has made the national championship game.
Of all the teams that have made the national championship game, 7 seeds hold the perfect record. Only one 7 seed have made it and they won. 1 seeds have a 64% chance to win it all, followed by 5 seeds at 50% and 2 seeds at 38%. If for some odd reason a 7 seed makes it, throw the house on them!
I hope this was useful to you all! It's a lot of info, but may give you a guide when picking upsets.
As always, GodSpeed!