The #7 Baylor Bears will travel to The Oklahoma State Cowboys tonight in a Big 12 matchup. Baylor is a 1-point favorite, and the o/u is set at 142.
Baylor is coming off a huge win at home on Saturday against instate foe, the Texas Longhorns. Baylor took care of business even without star freshman point guard, Keyonte George. The Bears will be without George, their leading scorer, once again tonight as he recovers from an ankle injury sustained in the first half of the Texas game.
Oklahoma State is coming off of four straight losses, including two of those games being at home. This brings the Cowboys home record to 11-4 on the year, and that record is in major jeopardy tonight.
Baylor won the previous matchup on 1/14 at home, 58-74.
Now this is by far the weirdest line on the CBB slate tonight. Why is Baylor just a 1-point favorite on the road to a subpar Oklahoma State team?
With this line, it can be expected that Vegas believes OKST's home court advantage will come into play because this is simply not enough points. The line is also suggesting that Baylor may suffer from a letdown game after having such an emotional win over the Longhorns.
The sharp and probably smart play in this scenario is to take the Cowboys plus the points. It's ugly, it doesn't make sense, it's probably the move. However, I have seen a weird shift in these "trap" games lately, and I think it has a lot to do with March fast approaching and teams either figuring it out or playing desperate to get a last second bid into the tourney.
Long story short, the trap games are not hitting like they were earlier. So, I am throwing away that system tonight and will be taking the obvious bet:
Yes, Baylor is in an emotional letdown position, and yes, they are playing an Oklahoma State team who is solid at home, but I am still going to take the Bears.
If you look at OKST's recent games, they have had a tough schedule. They've played against four ranked teams, and only came out with one win over Iowa State, who we now know is fraudulent.
Unfortunately for the Cowboy's their schedule is not getting much easier. Baylor is a huge task, and I simply do not think the Cowboys are up to it. Even with George out, I like Baylor big time in this game and could see them winning by 10+.
As always, good luck if tailing and Godspeed!