CBB Strategy and Plays
We had another 4-1 day yesterday in college basketball, and I have 10 more plays that I have placed today. I usually am not a huge fan or advocate of multiple open bets, but all of these games fit into my strategy, so I have to test it out on a larger scale. I will say, I have lowered my unit size for these plays simply because of the quantity of bets. Use that information as you will, but here we go.
The System/Strategy:
I have been messing around with this strategy the last couple weeks, and so far, it has been profitable, but more importantly, it is saving me time. I used to get stuck analyzing every single game, looking at every single stat, and it became time consuming and very frustrating when I lost. Now, I take about 10 minutes, and have all my plays for the day in CBB. Also, when/if you lose, it feels better knowing you didn't waste an entire morning giving out losing picks; you just wasted 10 minutes.
So here it is.
I start the day by opening up the terrible ESPN app on my phone and navigate to the CBB tab that shows the schedule. From there, I won't even click on individual games. The matchups, records, and the spreads are provided on the schedule page, and that is all I need.
From there, I scroll until I see a line that doesn't make any sense. This is the subjective part, but I will give a couple examples. Today, Missouri State (12-12) is playing at home against Belmont (17-8). Despite being the better team record wise, Belmont is an underdog tonight by 1.5-points. Now this may be because of home court advantage for MO ST, but it still doesn't warrant them to be favored in my mind. Because of this discrepancy and my prediction of everyone pouncing on Belmont plus the points, I have taken MOST -1.5.
You may say I only take home teams in this system, which is primarily where the odd lines come from, but that is not entirely true. Here is an example of an away team fitting the system today. Monmouth (4-20) is traveling to Stony Brook (8-16). Stony Brook is just a 3.5-point favorite at home. Now it is clear both teams are terrible, but we can all agree that Stony Brook is the better team. I mean they have twice as many wins. However, the fact that they are a 3.5-point favorite, means Vegas has these teams almost at a pick'em if it was neutral site (Home court is usually a 3-5 point swing in the lines). That is a gross thought and doesn't make sense to me, so you guessed it, I took Monmouth +3.5 tonight.
It is not a perfect system because it follows opinion more than statistics, but don't fix what isn't broken.
Full List of Plays Tonight:
Creighton -4
Monmouth +3.5
WVU -3.5
C. CONN -4.5
Boston -1.5
Missouri St -1.5
Vermont -8
Utah State -2
Loyola Chicago -3.5
Wyoming +2.5
I hope this has helped make sense of my madness. I am hoping to go 7/10 or better tonight, but I feel like this could go winless, and let me tell you, THAT IS EXACTLY HOW YOU WANT TO FEEL!
Good Luck, Good Scores, and Godspeed!