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Writer's pictureToxic Pockets

ChatGPT's Best Bets for MNF


Game Info:

  • Spread: Steelers -6

  • Total: 36.5


I asked ChatGPT to give its best bets for tonight's Monday Night Football game between the Giants and the Steelers. Here's what it gave out:


The Breakdown:

The Steelers, a perennial AFC power, come into this game as a 6-point favorite over the Giants, a team still struggling to find its rhythm. Betting on Pittsburgh may seem like the clear choice, but let’s dive deeper into why that spread may be tougher to cover than it looks.


1. Giants Could Cover (+6)

While the Steelers are the more established team, this game could be closer than the spread suggests. Here’s why:

  • Pittsburgh's Offensive Inconsistency: Even with their usual defensive prowess, Pittsburgh’s offense has struggled, with a focus on short-yardage gains and low-risk plays that often lead to lower scores. This conservative approach can lead to close games.

  • Underdog Edge: New York may be inconsistent, but they’re a scrappy underdog with just enough playmakers to keep things close. A solid Giants defense and quick, short passes could chew clock, which is beneficial in a low-total game like this.


2. Low Total Play: Under 36.5

Given Pittsburgh’s defense and both teams’ conservative offensive tendencies, the under is an appealing play:

  • Low Scoring Trends: Both teams trend toward slower-paced, defensive games, with Pittsburgh ranking low in offensive yardage per play.

  • Risk-Averse Approach: With the Giants’ offense still developing and Pittsburgh’s penchant for risk management, this could be a grind-it-out affair.


Best Bet: Giants +6 and Under 36.5

The best play here may be to take both the points with the Giants and the under. In a game that could be a defensive standoff, betting on the underdog to cover and the score to stay low feels like the smart, conservative move.

Score Prediction:

Based on the analysis, I’d predict a low-scoring game with Pittsburgh edging out the Giants in a close one. Something like:


Steelers 17, Giants 13


This score would allow the Giants to cover the +6 spread and keep the total under 36.5, fitting with the conservative play styles and defensive strengths of both teams.


Props:

For a game like this, with a low total and an expected defensive focus, player props related to conservative offensive plays and defensive performances can hold value. Here are a few prop bets to consider:


1. Under on Total Passing Yards for Both Quarterbacks

With both teams likely to rely on short-yardage plays and quick passes to avoid turnovers, betting the under on passing yards could be wise:

  • Steelers QB: Known for efficiency, but not necessarily piling up yards, especially against a capable Giants secondary.

  • Giants QB: Likely to face pressure from Pittsburgh’s strong pass rush, which could lead to short passes, limiting total yardage.


2. Longest Field Goal Made: Over 45.5 Yards

If the defenses dominate and drives stall, both teams may rely on long field goals. Pittsburgh’s kicker especially has the range to hit from 50+ yards, and a low-scoring game might see more field goal attempts from distance.

3. Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Najee Harris (Steelers)

In a game where touchdowns may be scarce, a running back with high usage near the goal line has good odds. Najee Harris is Pittsburgh’s go-to for ground scoring, and the Steelers may turn to him in short-yardage situations to punch it in.


4. Under 2.5 Total Touchdowns

With the predicted score and both teams’ tendencies to lean on defense, betting on a low number of total touchdowns fits. It aligns with a game script where points are primarily field goals, and red-zone drives stall short of the end zone.

These props offer value in a tight, defensive game and align with the low-scoring narrative expected here.



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