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Final Four Bets and Predictions

The long wait is over, and the NCAA Basketball Tournament resumes today with 2 very exciting games. I've struggled with both of these games, and have been flip-flopping between each side, but I have finally decided on where my money will be placed. Let's get into it.


FAU/SDSU:

The first game of the night is between 9-seed FAU and 5-seed SDSU. The matchup and anticipation of this game isn't as much as the nightcap, but I still think this is going to be a great game.


FAU has the most wins in the country with 35. They also won Conference USA, which has been the best performing conference in the postseason this year.


SDSU has been a great defensive team, and they are the best defensive team remaining, ranked 4th in efficiency. Their offense however is the worst remaining, ranked 75th. It should also be noted that the MW is a trash conference, and year after year suck in the tournament, with the exception of this SDSU team.


It is unfortunate that the bracket turned out the way it did, but this tournament has been full of upsets and underdogs, so the winner of this game can definitely compete in the National Championship game.


Two major factors have determined by bets for this game. The first is that SDSU has had 12 consecutive games going under the total points. The second is that FAU plays to their opponent's level, including their pace of place, scoring etc.


With that in mind, and with the fact that they are an easy team to root for, I have taken FAU +2.5 for a small wager. I have also taken the under of 131.5 for 2 units simply because of SDSU's track record of going under, and also because of FAU's ability to mimic their opponents' playstyles.


MIA/UCONN:

The second game and final game of the evening is between the clear two best teams left in the tournament. UCONN has been the best team remaining in the tournament since the sweet 16 in my opinion, and Miami has surprised everyone this tournament.


Miami is hanging on with their offensive ability. They are scoring 79.4 points per game and have the 5th best offensive efficiency in the country. However, Miami's defense is by far the worst remaining in the tournament, and they are way outside of kenpom's ideal defensive efficiency to win a national championship. (Miami is ranked 104 in defensive efficiency, and every champion since 2002 has been ranked 22 or less).


UConn is the best team left, and it is shown with their offensive and defensive efficiency as well. UConn ranks third on offense and 11th on defense. A complete team.


I really wanted to take UConn on the spread, but Miami has been doing the unthinkable all year. I am also worried that UCONN is a very popular bet as well as the over today. So without being too square, I have decided to make a little SGP for the game. I have taken UCONN ML & the adjusted over of 144.5 at +125.


This allows me to still bet what I believe will happen, but hopefully gives me some extra leeway.


As always, good luck and good scores!

-Toxic

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