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Guaranteed Tourney Winner

I just spent 3 hours looking at data trying to figure out if I could find any similarities in statistics between the last 20 NCAA champions and see if I could use them to project who would cut down the nets this year. Needless to say, I was successful.

After looking at the last 19 champions, I have found that teams who are on in the top in both offensive and defensive efficiencies have won every year. The red columns have no statistical relevance, and the blue categories play a small role in determining the champion. On average, the National champion is top 7 in offensive efficiency as well as top 11 in defensive efficiency.

If you take out the outliers, like the 2014 UConn squad for instance, or both UConn teams and the 2003 Syracuse team, you really get to see what the data is telling you.

With the outliers gone, the winners have averaged between the top 3-4 in offensive efficiency and top 10 in defensive efficiency over the 20 seasons.

I decided to use this data to see what teams this year fit this data.

I decided that 8 teams fit within these figures. I used the offensive and defensive efficiency category to find my top teams, and then used the blue categories to dive even deeper to get a better analysis.

Basically, Gonzaga is the consensus #1 as they crushed every category besides OR% which stands for offensive rebounding. But still without that, they are by far the best statistical team. Arizona and Kentucky are next just like Vegas has them. Personally, I like Kentucky a little more than Arizona, because their stats where the most consistent, but both teams can compete. Surprisingly, Houston is up there at +2800 but the stats don't lie, and they deserve their spot next to defending national champion Baylor. UCLA Auburn and Tennessee are also great picks, but I will not be placing a bet on Texas because I think they are a weak team. Just weird their stats aligned that way.

So, I put futures on the 8 teams listed about. There are ways to guarantee a profit if one of these 8 teams. Here's how I placed my bets to guarantee money:

Your unit size can be whatever you want:

  • 5.4 u's on Zags +300. (2.6 u profit)

  • 2.6 u's Arizona +650 (8.2 u profit)

  • 2.8 u's UK +800 (6 u profit)

  • 1.6 u's UCLA +1800 (12.3 u profit)

  • 1.6 u's Tennesse +1600 (9 u profit)

  • 1.6 u's Auburn +1200 (2.3 u profit)

  • 1.6 u's Baylor +1200 (2.3 u profit)

  • 1 u Houston +2800 (9.8 u profit)

GO Arizona!!

Hope you enjoyed this statistical rundown! Join Our bracket challenge before tomorrow's games! Winner gets $100!



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