WHAT YOU'RE ABOUT TO READ IS FROM A VERY BIASED, SMALL-BRAINED, MICHIGAN FAN.
I should be happier. It's a great time to be a Michigan fan! Coming of a National Championship in football was fantastic, but I can't help but to get bitter about this joke of a basketball team they have assembled. I've always been a glass half empty guy. Can't help it.
Let's use this pent up emotion and unwarranted dedication to a team that isn't worth it to our advantage!
#14 Illinois (12-4 overall, 3-2 in Big Ten, 1-2 on the road) travels to Ann Arbor to take on the Michigan Wolverines (7-10, 2-4 in Big Ten, 4-4 at home).
Illinois is a 2.5-point favorite in this game and the total is at 153.5.
The reasoning for this short line is because of Vegas' obsession with home court advantage in college basketball. Usually this makes sense. It's hard to win on the road and home court plays the most advantage in college basketball than any other sport in my opinion.
However, Michigan may be an exception. A 4-4 record at home this year is the worst in the big ten by 4 games. It may be the worst in the country. You may be asking if it is because they have played really good teams at home? That's a fair question, but no. No they have not.
Long Beach State and McNeese State came into Ann Arbor and beat the Wolverines as double-digit underdogs. Michigan also has yet to play a ranked team at home.
Vegas might also be overcompensating for Dug McDaniels being present for home games. This is fair since he is Michigan's leading scorer, and because of academic issues, Dug McBuckets is unable to travel to away games. But, we are also forgetting he is a turnover machine.
He may score 17 ppg, but how many points is he giving up in turnovers. So it goes both ways with Dug.
In short, Vegas is overreacting in this game, and has made a spread that is too short for Illinois. The Illini should be a 10+ point favorite in this game coming from a fan who has watched every second of every Michigan basketball game.
I have learned my lesson about fading the Wolverines. I have lost by last 8 bets in Michigan games, and decided to fade them last game against OSU. Of course the Buckeyes lost and so did my bet.
So I am staying away from game bets. WOULD HEAVILY LEAN ILLINOIS AND THE OVER IN THIS GAME!
I am however betting on some player props. This way I can still root for Michigan, and win money!
Marcus Domask o19.5 pts -120 (2 units)
Marcus is only averaging 14.9 pts per game this season, but that is because Terrance Shannon was the primary guy until he got suspended. Since Shannon's suspension, Domask has taken over as the guy for Illinois.
Since the suspension, Domask is averaging 22 ppg. Michigan is notorious for their lack of defense, and it is almost a guarantee that they allow the opposing teams best player (Domask) to have a career high.
Domask will shoot 20+ times this game easily, and should get 30+ points!
Coleman Hawkins o11.5 pts -121 (1 unit)
Somewhat of a hedge on the Domask bet. If somehow Michigan shuts down Domask, they will not be able to shutdown Hawkins.
Hawkins is a 6-10 freak who is a matchup liability for Michigan. Despite Hawkins size, he is a perimieter guy who loves the three ball!
Michigan should focus all their attention on Domask, which should give Hawkins a lot of attention.
Again this is kind of a hedge, but I can very easily see both hitting!
Good luck as always if tailing and Godspeed! Go Blue!