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Kentucky Derby Predictions

It is race day my good friends! The most exciting 2 minutes in sports will occur this afternoon around 7pm in the 148th running of the Kentucky Derby. Get ready to throw an unsafe amount of money on the granddaddy of sports betting events. I have a short analysis on a couple horses I believe can take home the trophy. Enjoy!


Quickly, here is the lineup and respected odds of the horses:

  • Epicenter - Odds: 5-1 LANE 3

  • Taiba - Odds: 5-1 LANE 12

  • Messier - Odds: 7-1 LANE 6

  • Zandon - Odds: 8-1 LANE 10

  • Mo Donegal - Odds: 8-1 LANE 1

  • White Abarrio - Odds: 11-1 LANE 15

  • Charge It - Odds: 13-1 LANE 8

  • Cyberknife - Odds: 14-1 LANE 16

  • Smile Happy - Odds: 15-1 LANE 5

  • Crown Pride - Odds: 17-1 LANE 7

  • Happy Jack - Odds: 22-1 LANE 2

  • Tiz the Bomb - Odds: 25-1 LANE 9

  • Zozos - Odds: 39-1 LANE 19

  • Simplification - Odds: 40-1 LANE 13

  • Barber Road - Odds: 41-1 LANE 14

  • Summer Is Tomorrow - Odds: 42-1 LANE 4

  • Pioneer of Medina - Odds: 47-1 LANE 11

  • Classic Causeway - Odds: 67-1 LANE 17

  • Tawny Port - Odds: 67-1 LANE 18

  • Rich Strike - Odds: 99-1 LANE 20


Top Horses:

Epicenter (5-1):

This horse is looking like the clear winner according to multiple analysts. Epicenter has 4 first place finishes in his last 5 runs and is by far the most experienced horse. His trainer has yet to win a derby, but today that could change.


Taiba (5-1):

Taiba is a very inexperienced horse but has a great jockey guiding his reigns. Taiba only has 2 career races and would be the first horse ever to win being that inexperienced. Very interesting horse here that is just an eager beaver! Definitely a reason his is one of favorites to win.


Messier (7-1):

Baffert's previously trained horse is looking to be a very good pick in this derby. Baffert is the MJ of horse trainers but is serving a suspension for rule violations. This horse knows how to run and is a good bet.


Zandon (8-1):

Depending what Book you look at, Zandon was the favorite for a long time. In the most recent odds, he fell from the top, as money was going on other horses but is a great pick! Zandon won in his last race on April 9th and is looking to stay victorious.


Mo Denegal (8-1):

Mo is a monstrous horse that smoked Zandon in December but got a very unlucky draw at the 1st spot. He will need to battle to not get pushed into the wall, but is a very sleepy pick.



Sleeper:

My Dark Horse, or should i say "White Horse" is White Abarrio. Abarrio is the 6th favorite so not much of a sleeper, but I am considering it as such. This horse is simply beautiful and just looks like a bad motherfucker. This colt will be receiving my love, cheers, and money.



The Picks (ordered by unit size)

  • Epicenter

  • Zandon

  • White Abarrio

  • Messier

  • Taiba


Tip-ins:

It is supposed to be a wet day at Churchill Downs. If a horse wants to win, they will need to jump to the front fast to avoid mud getting kicked up and losing their footing in the soggy track.


Post's 1 and 20 are usually considered to be heavy disadvantages due to the risk of running into the walls and getting cut off. Posts 5-10, and 13-16 are generally viewed as the best spots in the race.


The Favorite Wins 35% of the time in the Kentucky Derby. Favorites have won 6 times in last 9 years, with 1 second place, and 2 fourth place finishes.


As Always, Godspeed! If you enjoyed this, please send it out to your buddies. I would much appreciate it! WIN SOME MONEY!


-TOXIC

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