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MNF: PHI/WSH

The Philadelphia Eagles host the Washington Commanders in an inner-division showdown this Monday Night. The Eagles are the sole remaining undefeated team in the league, and they will try to stay perfect tonight against a struggling Commanders team. Backup QB Taylor Heinicke will led the Commanders for the 4th straight week with Carson Wentz sidelined to injury. Heinicke is not the most skilled or athletic QB, but he is a gamer and has that ultra-competitive nature that seems to keep him in every game. That statement will be tested tonight as Washington is currently an 11-point underdog to the NFC East leaders. The over/under is set at 43 as well.



System Plays and Bets:

There are multiple systems in play for the game tonight. Every system so far is pointing towards the under. Before I get into the systems, we have to remember that Vegas is well aware of what is happening and is adjusting the line accordingly, but even so, this may be too good to be true.


System 1: The Year of the Under

For whatever reason, the under has hit at an alarmingly high rate so far this season. Of the past 147 games, the under has hit in 87 of them with a 59.2% hit rate. That is significantly higher than previous years. Even with Vegas knowing this data, the unders continue to hit as scoring is substantially down.


System 2: Divisional Unders

Through 10 weeks of the season, divisional games have gone under 31 of 44 games (over 70%). Whether it's the rivalry games, or playing the same team twice, divisional games are notorious for going under. The game tonight is an NFC East divisional game, and very much fits in this system.


System 3: Primetime Unders

Another system is that primetime games go under at a significant rate. This year, the unders in primetime games have hit in 19 of 30 games or 63%. It could be the big stage, or the weather in the evening, but whatever it is, it is an important fact to know. Tonight's primetime game could make it a clean sweep for the week as the Panthers/Falcons and Chargers/49ers both went under on Thursday and Sunday night.


System 4: Unders in Games with Spreads >9.5

This is a different system that I just became aware of this season. At one point, it was true for 9 out of 11 games when the spread was greater than 9.5 points, that the game went under. That was two weeks back, but I believe it is still hitting above 70% this season. The thought process is quite simply here, they are predicting a blowout where the starters get subbed out early and therefore, the under hits.


Consensus:

We have all four under systems in play tonight. With Vegas adjusting the line, and a descent amount of line movement, the current total is at 43 points. The under may be too good to take tonight, but I am a math guy. I have to follow the trend regardless of Vegas' adjustments. We are riding the under of 43 tonight.


More Plays:

Since I am never satisfied with just one open bet, I have a handful more that I have placed. Here they are:

  • WSH +11

  • Eagles win margin: 7-12

  • Square PHI 4:0 WSH

  • Heinicke u34.5 Pass Attempts

With the thought process of the game going under, I am banking that Washington can cover the spread. 11 points is a lot in a game where I am projecting a low score. I really wish I could bet the Eagles by exactly 10 points, but I couldn't find a book that offered that, so I took them to win by 7-12 points. This seems like a great bet at +370 odds. The DK square I chose was PHI 4:0 WSH. I can see the Eagles getting up 14-0 quick or have a 24-10 sort of quarter end. At +550 odds, it feels too good to be true. I have ended with Heinicke u34.5 passing attempts. With the Eagle's strong secondary, I see Heinicke struggling in the passing game. His most in his three games this season was 33 attempts, but I am a little worried that he will throw more with them probably being down most of the game.

Godspeed!

-Toxic


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