What else, besides watching the Myrtle Beach Bowl, are you going to do at 2:30pm on a Monday? There is nothing better than having a football game midday, and despite this game looking like it is going to be pretty boring, I am still very excited, and have a bet I will be placing!
The 8-4 Thundering Herd of Marshall take on the barely bowl eligible 6-6 UConn Huskies. Marshall is currently a 12-point favorite, but the line is moving quite a bit. The total is set at 40.5 points.
Marshall is currently on a 4-game win streak and is playing really good ball right now. Their heavy running game, and stiff run defense has allowed them to find a lot of success all throughout the year. They even knocked of Notre Dame early in the season as one of the biggest upsets of this year's college football season. Marshall is scoring 24 point per game offensively, and they are averaging 200 yards per game passing and 205 yards per game rushing. Defensively, they have been wonderful allowing just 16 points per game. Their pass defense is above average, and they allow just over 200 yards per game in the air. Their rushing defense has been phenomenal and has only allowed 88 yards per game on the ground.
UConn on the other hand, started the season of terribly, but has kind of figured it out down the stretch. They won 3 of their last 4 games to make them bowl eligible. Connecticut really struggles offensively and scored under 20 points a game. Their passing game is almost non-existent with just 107 yards per game. Like Marshall, their run game has been what has kept them alive this season. They are rushing for just under 200 yards per game, and it is the main focus of their offense. Defensively, they struggle allowing 26 points per game. UConn allows 220 yards per game in the air, and 166 yards per game on the ground.
Everything that I just said is pointing to Marshall. I believe their run defense will shut down UConn's run game, and that is all UConn has. Likewise, I think Marshall's run game will have a successful game against UConn's below average run defense.
The only thing pulling me away from Marshall spread, is the reverse line movement in this game. Marshall opened as a 10-point favorite, and despite UConn receiving a majority of spread bets, the line has moved to Marshall -12. This is very fishy and very worrisome.
Since my brain can't understand what is going on with that line, I have decided to make another bet that isn't spread related. I am taking the over of 40.5 points. This is a risky bet, but here is why I like it:
I'm pretty sure Marshall takes care of business today, and I can see them scoring 34 themselves
The reverse line movement is giving me the impression that Vegas see's something good in UConn
UConn has nothing to lose, happy to be here, playing it as their Super Bowl
I can see a couple of trick plays, a couple 4th down conversions, and hopefully UConn can pull out 20 points themselves
Again, everything is point to a 23-3 Marshall win, but I just feel like UConn is going to surprise everyone.
Good Luck, Good Scores, and Godspeed!