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Potato Bowl Bet

The bowl we've all been waiting for is this afternoon! The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl will be played at 3:30pm ET between Eastern Michigan and San Jose St. San Jose State is currently sitting at a 4-point favorite and the over/under is set at 53.


The Matchup:

Eastern Michigan (8-4) had a solid year in the MAC, finishing in second place in the west with a 5-3 conference record. EMU seems to either play games close (6/12 games were within one score), or they get blown out. They suffered a 28-point loss to Louisiana, and a 29-point loss to both Buffalo and Northern Illinois.


They are averaging almost 29 points a game with 217 yards passing and 142 yards rushing. Defensively they also allow 28 points per game. Their solid passing defense of 208 yards allowed per game is sometimes drowned out by their poor rushing defense which allows 160 yards per game.


San Jose on the other hand, has a very poor rushing offense and they only average 92 yards per game on the ground. Their primary offense occurs in the air where they average 263 pass yards a game and score just shy of 28 points per game. Defensively, San Jose State is solid in both the run and passing game. They allow 20 points, 210 passing yards, and 120 rushing yards per contest.


San Jose State has played a MAC school earlier in the season. They beat Western Michigan 34-6 back in Sep. 10. Eastern Michigan also beat Western in a 45-23 blowout.


The Bet:

This is a tricky spread game. I wanted to take EMU plus the points, but I've seen multiple sharps take SJSU. They probably know more than me about these two teams, so I'm going to pass on the spread. I will, however, take a total in this game.


Both teams have had higher than normal scoring in their final weeks of the season that have skewed the PPG numbers. With a couple weeks of preparing for this game, I think both defenses will be up to the challenge. I like the under of 53 in this game. Here is why:

  • EMU has a bad run defense, but it works perfectly with SJSU's bad rush offense

  • SJSU's defense shouldn't have any trouble with EMU's below average offense

  • 19 degrees at kickoff, after not playing for 3 weeks, suggests a sloppy game



The under is never a fun bet to root for, but I do think this is the logical play. Good Luck, Good Scores, and Godspeed!


-Toxic

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