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RBC Canadian Open Preview, Predictions, and Bets

Updated: May 31

As the PGA Tour descends upon the Hamilton Golf and Country Club in Ontario, Canada, for the RBC Canadian Open, excitement is building for what promises to be an exhilarating tournament.

Rory McIlroy, the clear favorite and course record holder, is returning to defend his title at Hamilton, where he won by 7 strokes and shot a 61 in his final round in 2019.

Known as one of the shortest courses on Tour, Hamilton rewards long and accurate tee shots, demanding excellence off the tee or hyper-accurate approach shots to contend. Recent renovations have introduced more distance and difficulty, but the course remains very gettable for those up to the challenge.


This year's field is packed with talent, making for an interesting mix of seasoned pros and rising stars. Nick Taylor, the most recent winner and the first Canadian to claim the RBC Canadian Open title in 69 years, is back to defend his title alongside other notable Canadian golfers.

The burning question remains: can anyone stop Rory McIlroy? Please continue reading for our best bets, longshots, placement picks, and predictions!


Key Stats to Watch:

When predicting outcomes at the RBC Canadian Open, certain statistics stand out as particularly crucial.


Color Key:

  • Green: Golfer Ranks in all 5 Categories

  • Blue: Golfer Ranks in 4/5 Categories

  • Yellow: Golfer Ranks in 3/5 Categories

  • Orange: Golfer Ranks in 2/5 Categories

  • Red: Golfer Ranks in 1/5 Categories


Driving Distance and Accuracy are paramount on this short course; the farther and more precisely a golfer can drive, the easier and shorter their approach shots will be.


Driving Distance in the Field:

  1. McIlroy

  2. Champ

  3. Dougherty

  4. Pendrith

  5. Norrman

  6. Woodland

  7. Yuan

  8. Vegas

  9. PI Coody

  10. Springer


Driving Accuracy in the Field (Last 60 Days):

  1. Vegas

  2. Kizzire

  3. Berger

  4. Merritt

  5. Rai

  6. Sigg

  7. C. Kim

  8. Martin

  9. Lashley

  10. Noren


Approach the Green is another vital stat, as approach shots are arguably the most critical in golf, often determining the difference between birdies and bogeys.


SG: ATG

  1. Conners

  2. Kizzire

  3. Rai

  4. Lowry

  5. Mitchell

  6. Sigg

  7. Bhatia

  8. Vegas

  9. Moore

  10. Martin


Tee to Green combines these aspects, offering a comprehensive view of a player's performance from tee-off to reaching the green.


SG: Tee to Green (Last 60 Days):

  1. McIlroy

  2. Noren

  3. Yu

  4. C. Kim

  5. Rai

  6. Fleetwood

  7. Mitchell

  8. Thompson

  9. McNealy

  10. Meissner


Strokes Gained is the umbrella statistic, encapsulating overall performance and clearly portraying a golfer's competitiveness.


SG: Total (Last 60 days):

  1. Kizzire

  2. Conners

  3. C. Kim

  4. McIlroy

  5. Sigg

  6. Power

  7. Rai

  8. Noren

  9. Yu

  10. Svennson

Recent statistics from the past 60 days to six months are especially telling, as golf is a streaky sport where current form can significantly influence outcomes.


Statistical Analysis:

One golfer, Aaron Rai, ranks in 4 out of the 5 categories we are looking at for this tournament. This immediately brings us to his attention and deserves a deeper dive into his recent form.


Rai ranks 83rd overall in FedEx points. He has played in 15 events with 11 cuts made. He has two top-10 finishes and five top-25 finishes. He has made four straight cuts and his best finish this year came three weeks ago at the CJ Cup where he finished T4. He finished T32 at the Charles Schwab and T39 at the PGA Championship.

We then have 6 golfers (McIlroy, Vegas, Kizzire, Sigg, Noren, and C. Kim). It is no surprise that Rory McIlroy finds himself ranked in the top 10 of these categories being the clear favorite and world #4. However, there are a couple of names on there that are not so known and could make potential longshot picks.


Bets:


Outrights (Via DraftKings):

I've had three consecutive 2nd place finishers with my outright bets (Schauffele, DeChambeau, and Scheffler). It's been frustrating, but we must prevail.


I have no doubt Rory will dominate this event, but +360 is not a number I feel comfortable betting in an outright winner unless your name is Scottie Scheffler. Instead, I am going to live bet Rory McIlroy if he gets to +750 or above. Aiming for +1000 but not sure if it will get there.


Maverick McNealy (+3300) 0.25u:

I just have a gut feeling with Maverick. His odds being so low makes me love him even more. Not a super well-known golfer, but he has playing great recently. He ranks 9th in the field on SG: Tee to Green and has made the cut in 12/14 events. His best finish was 6th at the Waste Management. He also finished 9th at the Players and 23rd at the PGA, two of the top 5 tournaments of the year. I'll sprinkle Maverick in!

Placements: (BetMGM Avoids Dead Heat Rules!)


Top 5:

  • Fleetwood (+333) 0.5u

  • Conners (+450) 0.25u

  • McNealy (+600) 0.25u

  • Pendrith (+750) 0.25u


Top 10:

  • Fleetwood (+160) 1u

  • Conners (+225) 0.5 u

  • McNealy (+300) 0.25u

  • Pendrith (+375) 0.25u

Top 20:

  • Conners (+110) 1u

  • McNealy (+150) 1u

  • Rai (+160) 0.5u

  • Pendrith (+188) 0.5u

  • Svensson (+275) 0.25u

  • MacIntyre (+300) 0.25u

  • Kuchar (+320) 0.25u

Prop Bets: (BetMGM Avoids Dead Heat Rules!)


Top Canadian:

Taylor Pendrith (+650) 0.25u


Top American:

Maverick McNealy (+1600) 0.25u


Round 1 Leader:

Robert MacIntyre (+8000) 0.1u


Total Units Risked: 7.85u


RBC Canadian DFS Contest:

Join WorstBet's RBC Canadian DFS Contest on Splash Sports. $10 Entry fee. The top 5 entries get paid out. $900 Prize Money


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