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TNF Bets

An inner-divisional game in the AFC East with some fishy line movement has a lot of people talking. The Buffalo Bills opened as a 5.5-point favorite on the road in New England, but despite the majority of the bets and the money coming in on the Bills, the line has moved in favor of the Patriots. It now rests at a 3.5-point spread in favor of the Bills. This is a big no-no in the betting world what I am about to tell you. So beware, and if you want to sound like a "sharp", then take the Patriots and claim it's because of "reverse line movement".


I would first like to state I despise the term "sharp bettors". There is nothing scientific about what they do. They just take the really unappetizing line and claim it's a sharp play, like the Patriots in tonight's game. Anyone can be a sharp when you do that, and I usually try to avoid these games or put small units on the ugly line. However, this is not the case in tonight's game.


With unpopular opinion, I am hammering the Bills tonight. I have taken them Moneyline for 3 units, -3.5 (-115) for 2 units, -7.5 (+150) for .75 units, -9.5 (+175) for .5 units, and -13.5 (+270) for .25 units. I am simply all in on the Bills, and I think they take this one 27-6 and here's why:

  • Despite an 8-3 record, the Bills are 0-2 in the AFC East, if they want to get that number one spot, they will need to win a divisional game fast

  • Josh Allen may not be 100%, but a 50% Allen is so much better than a 100% Mac Jones

  • A questionable Meyers will drastically affect the Patriots offensive ability

  • Bills haven't had that breakaway game in a couple weeks, they're due to show they are serious Super Bowl contenders.

Please beware that this goes against every sharp out there. It is a risky play, but I think it is well worth the risk!



If all hell breaks loose, I have hedged with a same game parlay that will hopefully get some of my losses back. Here it is"

  • Allen u304.5 Pass Yds

  • Jones o1.5 Pass TD's

  • Jones o194.5 Pass Yds

  • Agholor ATD

  • NE +3.5

  • u43.5

+3500


Again, that is a hedge with a very small unit size. I don't see that coming close to hitting, but it is my safety net.



As always, Godspeed, Good Luck and Good Scores. Go Bills!

-Toxic

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