You thought last week's Thursday Night's matchup was bad, just wait until tonight's. Amazon and the NFL are on a streak of terrible primetime Thursday night games, and tonight's just might be the worst one yet. Will I still watch it? Yes, but only because I'm addicted to football and addicted to making money!
I will be getting into each bet and the reasonings a little more in depth this week. I want to make sure you can see my complete reasonings around each pick to help you make the best decision. We are on a two-day green streak, and last Thursday I did go a perfect 6-0, so just jot that down and remember that before reading these upcoming plays!
The leader-less Washington Commanders travel to Soldier Field to take on the nonexistent passing attack of the Chicago Bears. Depending on the book you use, the line is anywhere from a pick'em to the Commanders -1.5. The over/under is set at an abysmal 38 points.
After winning the first week against the Jaguars, the Commanders have fallen the last four weeks and sit at 1-4 on the season. The last four losses have been to the Titans, Cowboys, Eagles, and the Lions. The Bears have been up and down all season with more downs than ups. They shocked everyone after they beat the 49ers in week one, but you could put an asterisk on this game since it took place in a tsunami. Following that win, the Bears lost to the Packers, beat the Texans, and then lost the last two weeks to the Giants and the Vikings.
Overall, this game has everything in the makings of a stinker. Will it be as bad as last week? I hope not, but there is absolutely no star-power on either side and is looking like it is going to be a low scoring, ugly affair.
With two terrible offenses facing off, the under is definitely an appetizing line. However, despite having almost nonexistent offenses, both teams also have terrible defenses. The under is a little worrisome because of the lack of defense. A couple big plays throughout the game could blow the door wide open, and then the over could be in trouble. Personally, I would stay away, or at least reduce your wager side on the bet.
Along similar lines, this game could go either way. As a pick'em, I know, and more importantly, Vegas knows that the game could be decided by a coin flip. With that much variability, I would stay away from the ML or spread as well. If you were to take a side, i would lean on the Bears to win this game.
When we don't like the game lines, what do we go to? That is right, Player Props. I have a couple props that I have placed descent wagers on. Here they are:
Brian Robinson Anytime TD Scorer (+180)
Brian Robinson o5.5 Rec Yds (-110)
Curtis Samuel 4.5 Receptions (-125)
Brian Robinson made his return last week after suffering a gunshot wound to his leg. He ran for 22 yards on 9 attempts and had zero catches on zero targets. These are probably not the stats you wanted to hear when betting on Robinson, but here is what you need to know. Robinson has found himself in a backfield with 2 other very similar backs: JD McKissic and Antonio Gibson. His load was smaller because he was coming of an injury, and we have to remember he is a rookie. Last week was his NFL debut, it's only up from here.
Robinson was drafted to be the main back for this team, and this week, on primetime, is where he will earn that position and prove why he should be the Commanders RB1. The Bear's rushing defense is terrible, so look for Robinson to hit some open holes (hopefully on the goal line). The reason I stood away from his rushing yards was simply the worry of the split in the backfield. I could be very convinced to also take his total yards. With the hopes that this is Robinson's come to fame game, is the reason I took his anytime TD prop. If the Commanders make it to the goal line, I truly believe they will give it to Robinson to show everyone this is our back.
The reason for the receiving yards is solely because I am all over Robinson tonight. 5.5 receiving yards is just one catch, and that should be easy enough. At Alabama, he was never the true receiving back, but he on average had 2/3 catches per game with 20+ receiving yards. This bet isn't backed by many statistics but rather impulse.
Finally, the last player prop of the day is Curtis Samuel o4.5 Receptions. Samuel has come alive this year as Washington's main receiver. He has gone over 4 receptions in 4 of the first 5 games, and with Dotson out tonight, this streak should continue. Terry McLaurin has not been Wentz' guy this season, it has been Samuel. No idea why, but also no idea why Wentz is a starting QB in this league.
That is all I have for the NFL. I do have a couple college football plays for tonight that will be on another blog this afternoon. As always Godspeed, Good Luck, and Good Scores!