MACtion returns tonight in a three-game slate. Eastern Michigan travels to Akron, Ohio plays at Miami (OH), and Ball State visits Toledo. Going 1-3 in my last MACtion day, I have decided to just place one bet tonight. This one play is my favorite, and it is a three-unit play! Let's dive in!
Game Preview:
The Ball State and Toledo game seems like it will be this most entertaining game of the evening. Ball State currently stands in 2nd place in the MAC West with a 3-2 conference record and a 5-4 overall record. They sit right behind Toledo, tonight's opponent. This game has a lot of precedence in the MAC conference standings and for that reason it is the most entertaining game on the slate.
Ball State is coming off a big win last week against Kent State, which I lost a lot of money betting on Kent. In last week's game, Ball State's running offense was unstoppable and lead them to a big underdog win. This week's matchup with Toledo could result in the same running success as Toledo's defense gives up a below average 160 rushing yards per game.
Similarly, Toledo also has also had a lot of success on the ground. They are averaging almost 190 rushing yards per game and should continue that tonight with Ball State allowing 190 rushing yards per game.
According to Vegas, Toledo is an 11-point favorite, and the over/under is set at 50 points.
The Bet and Reasoning:
Seeing what the lines are set at, Vegas, in my opinion, believes this will be a game dominated by the run game, with long drives and few scores. They also believe that Toledo will have their way and have made Ball State a disrespectful 11-point underdog.
Both of those lines seem off to me. I have stayed away from Ball State +11, but I could be easily convinced to take that bet. Ball State is infamous for keeping the games within one score, and more often than not, they have won those close games this year. Could definitely be worth a sprinkle.
My main focus is on the over. The line is set at a low total of 50. As said before, I think Vegas is predicting this game consists of long drives that drain the clock. I do believe it is going to be a running game, but I also think there will be multiple long touchdown runs. For this reason, I am taking the over of 50 for 3 units.
Ball State is scoring just shy of 25 points per game and is allowing 27. Toledo is scoring almost 36 a game and allowing 27 as well. These averages are too high for me to take the under tonight. I already know the sharps will be on the under, but I just don't buy it! Points, Points, Points.
I most likely will sprinkle Ball State +11 right before game time, so follow my twitter for updates on those bets.
That is all I got, Godspeed!
-Toxic