Last week was the first week of examining the trap lines Vegas puts out. It was an odd weekend for sure, and our record was a crummy 3-4 on the trap games. It will take some time to truly understand what Vegas is up to, but I can guarantee this: we will be better this week than last.
Last Week's Plays:
A 3-4 record to start our new trend is nothing to write home about. Vegas was successful on convincing me of taking one big trap last weekend, and that was NC State +3.5. I decided to fall into their game and take the Wolfpack plus the points on the road at Syracuse. I was under the impression that Syracuse were frauds, and although that still may be true, it is evident that NC State simply isn't it. Vegas gladly took my money on that bet.
One of the traps I successfully fell into was OK State +4 over TCU. This game was really close and went to double OT with TCU winning by 3. It was a very close one, but I scraped by and came out victorious. The other trap that I was successful falling for was Minnesota -3 over Miami. Minnesota being just a 3-point favorite over a third string QB felt criminal, but I decided to roll with it and I'm happy I did. The Vikings won by 8, and I got a nice little victory.
The One and only trap that I successfully avoided was Oklahoma -9 over Kansas. Why was OU such a big favorite over a very solid Kansas team? It felt like way too much which is why I took them. Thankfully the Sooners won by 10 and the bet cashes.
And finally, I tried to avoid these three traps, but it turns out Vegas was wrong on these lines, and I paid the ultimate price. Minnesota -6.5 over Illinois made no sense to me. It was so bizarre and was way too many points. Because of this, I hammered the Gophers and guess what, Vegas was wrong. Illinois wins outright. Next was Florida state +3.5 over Clemson. Why was that line so low, it should have been at least 7-7.5-point dogs. So of course, I took the Seminoles. They lost by 6. And lastly, Baltimore -6 seemed like way too many points on the road in New York. The Giants ended up winning this game 24-20, and my bet busted just like Lamar's season.
This Week's Fishy Lines:
#7 Ole Miss +1.5 @ LSU
#9 UCLA +6 @ #10 Oregon
Giants +3 @ Jaguars
Jets +1 @ Broncos
I did not identify as many traps this week as last week, but I do think we have the biggest trap of the season this far on Sunday. We will get into that in a second. The 3:30 PM College Football slate has three extremely weird lines in my eyes. All great matchups, but also all odd lines.
Ole Miss, one of the few undefeated teams in the country is an underdog this weekend at LSU. I understand Death Valley is an extremely tough place to play, but to me it is clear that the Rebels are the better team. I understand Vegas is taking into account the advantage of home field, but is it really enough to push LSU to become a 1.5-point favorite? Seems weird, but I really don't like Kelly and I refuse to bet on him.
EMOTIONAL BET: PROCEED WITH CAUTION (OLE MISS +1.5)
Next up is another great game. We have #11 Oklahoma State at home against the #20 Texas Longhorns. Vegas has decided that Texas is a 6.5-point favorite on the road, which means Vegas really thinks they are ~10 points better than Oklahoma State. That's ridiculous right?! Very weird and I don't know what Vegas is up to. I think they game is going to be close, but I'm going to go against my gut here.
AVOID THE TRAP: TEXAS -6.5
The final College Football trap game I identified is a huge top 10 matchup in the PAC12. #9 UCLA travels to #10 Oregon. The Ducks are a 6-point favorite. This one is probably the smallest definition of a trap. I actually think the line is pretty accurate, but an outsider looking at just the rankings would see this as odd. It really isn't. I think Oregon is the much better team and I'm going to stick with that statement.
AVOID THE "TRAP": OREGON -6
Now we move onto the NFL where I believe the biggest trap exists this week, and maybe this year! There has been much discussion about this game amongst the WorstBets' analysts. A 'reverse trap" was also suggested by a contributing member which has completely turned not just mine, but numerous worlds upside down. Let's not overthink it, and just think what Vegas is wanting us to do.
The game in question is the Giants at the Jaguars. Somehow, the 5-1 Giants are a 3-point underdog to the 2-4 Jacksonville Jaguars. Yes, you read that right. A three-point dog. Why did Vegas set the line like this. Makes no sense and a lot of people are trying to back this claim that the Jaguars should be favored, and the line is accurate. Bullshit. HOWEVER, I don't like all these self-proclaimed professional gamblers saying that the Jags -3 is the sharpest bet out there.
BE CAUTIOUS, ACTUALLY NO, BET THE GIANTS +3
The final game is a small trap in my eyes. At the beginning of the season, you would think this is a respectable line, but not now. The Jets are a 1 point dog to the Broncos. The Jets have emerged as an average team that can win games. The Broncos have emerged as dog shit. I like betting the hot team and I think Vegas wants you to do that. Broncos will probably bounce back in this game, but I am listening to my emotions. I don't like Russ and refuse to bet and cheer for his success.
VERY EMOTIONAL BET, BE CAUTIOUS: JETS +1
That is all I have for this weekend's slate. Be careful when betting these games, and if you feel uneasy or unsure, then stay away. There are a lot better games to bet on then these confusing trap lines.
As always, Godspeed, good luck and good scores!