Yes, you read that right. It is Wednesday, and there is football on tonight. The SMU Mustangs are heading down to Orlando, to take on the UCF Knights. The game that was previously scheduled for last weekend, was postponed to tonight due to Hurricane Ian. This gives us sports bettors much relief and happiness, so let's get into the bet and build that bankroll for the weekend!
The Line has moved in the last couple hours, but it currently sits at UCF -2.5, and the total has moved slightly from 62 (what I got it at) to 63.5. I know these are not super appetizing lines, but I have bet the ML, the spread, and the point total in this game and I will tell you why.
SMU ML, SMU +2.5, under 62, under 63.5
This is a tricky game if you're looking at just the board, but upon further investigation into each team, it is looking more and more obvious that UCF may be overrated. UCF is sitting at a 3-1 record with 3 wins against SC State, FAU, and Georgia Tech, all of which are terrible teams. Their one loss came to Louisville where they lost 20-14. Louisville has been UCF's only real opponent and they shit the bed. Louisville isn't even good anyways and have a 2-3 record themselves.
The high-powered, fast-paced UCF offense that we are used to is dead. They have struggled to score and have only gone over the total of 62 once this year and that was against South Carolina State, an FCS team. The game against Louisville finished with 34 total points where UCF's offense looked confused and sloppy.
SMU is obviously not a power 5 team, but they have had a track record to be competitive in the American for a long time, including this season. SMU has a deceptive 2-2 record where if you're just scratching the surface, looks not very good, but if you dive in and look at the losses, it makes them look better.
SMU lost to a some would say a sneakily good Maryland team at College Park, 27-34. Following that loss, SMU hosted TCU and lost 34-42. Both games were a one possession game where SMU fought until the end. Maryland played my Wolverines tough, and then beat Michigan State pretty handily last weekend. TCU is sitting at 4-0 after dismantling Oklahoma 55-24. The fact that SMU was close in both these games is very impressive.
With all this info, SMU just has the better strength of schedule and I believe they are more prepared than UCF is giving them credit for. UCF in my opinion will have their hands full tonight, and SMU has a very very good chance of winning this game. My only concern is that this game turns into a shootout. SMU has proven that they can score, but more worrisome is that they have also proven that they are not afraid to give up points.
With that being said, I'm still heavy on the under tonight, but my confidence is more on SMU covering as well as winning outright!
As always, Good Luck, Good Scores, and lets all celebrate that we have midweek football!!!!