WARNING. WARNING!!!
You are about to read an article from an extremly biased, die hard Michigan Fan. Take what I am about to say with a grain of salt! Ain't no way I am betting against my team that has made the National Championship for the first time in my life (that I can remember).
With that being said, I have added some extra analysis supporting my picks to not cover up my bias, but to add a little more reasoning as to why I do what I do.
Enjoy.
Michigan Team Total o30.5
Reason:
Michigan ranks 14th in the country in points per game at 36
Michigan has scored 30+ points in 11 of their 14 games.
Michigan has played the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best scoring defense and have scored 24+ points in each game
Washington has the 53rd best defense in the country allowing 24.14 points per game
Washington has allowed 30+ points in 6/14 games
Washington ranks 94th in the country in YPG allowed (404.1)
Washington ranks 41st in Rush yards per game (137.1)
Michigan averages 159.5 rush yards per game
Yes, Washington's defense has had to play the high-powered offenses in the PAC-12, which offensively, are much tougher than Big 10 opponents, but they also haven't played a team as physical and dominating as Michigan,
I don't think Washington will have any chance to stop Michigan's rushing offense, and if they decide to load up the box, then I have all the faith in the world that JJ McCarthy will dice them up in the secondary.
Michigan will get 31 points or more in this game. (Can take Michigan's TT at 29.5 if you don't have the balls to tail).
Michigan -4.5
Reason:
*see above reasoning
Also, a fantastic betting split is screaming to me to take Michigan not only because I am a fan, but because we have serious line movement!
Washington has been the public bet since this game opened (Michigan -3.5). Despite a large number of public bets, the line keeps moving up in Michigan's favor. I believe it is up to Michigan -5 now.
This is music to my ears as a bettor, and is a great learning experience of a public trap bet! Vegas is begging you to take Washington, so much that they keep making it more and more appetizing for you!
DON'T FALL FOR IT!
The line is moving in Michigan's favor for a reason! Go Blue!
Blake Corum first TD (+350)
Reason:
If you want to fade one bet today, this is the one. This is simply a shot in the dark. Blake is going to score tonight. In fact Michigan is 25-0 when Blake scores 1+ TD, so if you want to take Corum TD + Michigan ML then go ahead! That's a great bet!
But I'm going to take a chance on Corum to be the guy to score first. He will be a huge part of Michigan's gameplan today, and I really don't think Washington will have an answer!
Good luck as always if tailing, and GO BLUE!!!!