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Spotting Sharp Plays in Three College Basketball Matchups

There are three upcoming matchups tonight in college basketball that pique our interest on the court and stand out in the betting landscape. Guided by a careful examination of betting splits and a keen awareness of sharp angles, we pinpoint these games as prime opportunities for bettors to capitalize! Continue reading as we break down the intricacies of each contest and unveil the strategic bets that have value and potential profit.

Northwestern at Purdue -13.5, 6:30 PM ET

The Purdue Boilermakers find themselves in a formidable position, eager to redeem an earlier 92-88 OT loss at the hands of the Northwestern Wildcats. With a stinging memory of defeat fresh in their minds, Purdue returns to their home court with a vengeance, ready to level the score.

The surprise, however, lies not only in the intensity of the rematch but also in the odds laid before us—Purdue emerges as an unexpected 13.5-point favorite, setting the stage for an intriguing clash. The egregiously low total of 141.5 adds an extra layer of anticipation, promising an evening of high-stakes basketball action.

Odds are constantly shifting, and so are the betting splits, but as of right now, a very sharp side can be identified in this game. Despite the spread being quite large in favor of Purdue, the public still rides with the Boilermakers. Purdue on the spread is still most likely a smart bet, but there are better opportunities when betting on this game.

The sharp side of this game is the total. More specifically the under of 141.5.

The total for this game opened at 143.5 points. It since has fallen to as low as 140 points despite a majority of bets coming in on the over. This indicates that there is a public side and a sharp side in this game.

If a majority of bets come in on one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction, it means that some big money is being placed on the opposite. This is called reverse line movement and is a bettor's dream.

The Breakdown of this game on Pikkit is pictured below. Pikkit is a very useful and free app that provides free resources, bet syncing, and odd shopping all in one place!

pikkit betting splits

According to Pikkit, 37% of the bets are coming in on the under, but 57.8% of the money is coming in on the under. A noticeable difference indicates a sharp play on the under.

Other sites provide similar information. DraftKings shows 73% of the bets are on the over. Action has 62% of bets on the over, and Vegas Insider has 60% of bets on the over, but only 33% of the money is on the over.

Sharp Bet:

NW/PUR u141.5 (-110)

Florida at Kentucky (-5.5), 8 PM ET

Another pivotal clash in college basketball tonight is between the Florida Gators and the Kentucky Wildcats. Mirroring the Purdue-Northwestern narrative, the betting landscape unveils a captivating trend, positioning the total in this game as an opportunity for profit.

Kentucky enters this game as a 5.5-point home favorite, which at first glance, seems a little low, but the betting percentage on the spread doesn't reveal any sharp bet.

The sharp action is once again on the total in this game. The total is set at 171.5, making it the highest of the day, and one of the highest on the year. Usually when you get such a high number, the public dives in on the under. But that isn't the case in this game.

According to action, the total opened at 172.5 and had 66% of the bets on the over. Since then, the

line has fallen all the way down to 170.5. Another scenario of reverse line movement.

action network betting splits

It is always important to find multiple sources with looking at betting splits. Vegas Insider reiterates this data as it shows that 66% of the bets are on the over, but only 29% of the money is on the over.

Sharp Bet:

UF/UK u171

Penn State at Rutgers (-6.5), 8:30 PM ET

The final game preview is the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Much like the Purdue-Northwestern and Florida-Kentucky matchups, our attention is drawn to the intriguing betting landscape, hinting at the potential for yet another sharp play on the total.

Rutgers is notorious for having very low-scoring games, especially at home. Penn State, being just shy of .500, makes their living playing to the level of their opponent. With a defensive Rutgers team at home, the total should be somewhat low and dictated by Rutgers's playstyle.

That is not at all what we are seeing. The total opened at 142.5 and has gotten up to 144.5 despite just 16% of the bets coming in on the over!

action netwok betting splits

Vegas Insider also shows the under as a very public bet, having 86% of the bets but just 56% of the money!

Sharp Bet:


For More Betting Content

If you crave more in-depth analysis, strategic insights, and potential profit paths in the ever-changing landscape of sports betting, be sure to follow me on X/Twitter and Pikkit Sports. If you want video content, follow my TikTok @WorstBets!

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