Finally, a Thursday Night Football game with "respectable" teams! Respectable may not be the right words when describing either of these teams, but at least we have a little star-power on primetime! The Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Baltimore Ravens tonight. Tampa is a slight favorite at 1.5 points, and the over/under is set at 46 points.
Trouble in Tampa:
The Buccaneers are on the verge of losing three games in a row this season, and desperately need to get back on track in order to contend for a Super Bowl (which may be unrealistic now). Tampa has lost the last two weeks to very below average teams. They lost a close one to the Steelers two weeks ago, and now they are coming off an embarrassing blowout loss to the Panthers. Can the Bucs turn it around against a deceptive Ravens team?
Tom Brady will lead Tampa's charge in tonight's game. The future Hall of Famer and the best quarterback to ever play the game is looking exactly how you would imagine a 45-year-old still playing in the NFL would look like. He looks old, slow, maybe even unhealthy. This is really the first we are seeing of Tom's decline. It has been slow the last couple of seasons, but this year it is evident he doesn't have much longer in this league.
Another thing that might not last long in this league is Tom Brady's ridiculous record of going 302 consecutive games (20 years) without losing three consecutive games. This record is very much in jeopardy tonight.
Raven's Deceptive Record:
Baltimore sits with a record of 4-3 on the season. However, there is a crazy stat out there that the Ravens have only trailed for like 3 minutes all season. They have lost by a total of 11 points in their three losses and could easily be sitting a 7-0 on the season. Lamar Jackson has played well this year, but also has shown signs of weakness especially in those losses. Some poor decisions and bad turnovers are what is the difference between 7-0 and 4-3.
The Bets:
For a reason unclear to me, Vegas still believes in Tampa Bay, which is the reason for the odd line of TB -1.5. We have ourselves a case of a trap line, and dare I even say a reverse trap line? Looking at this game, the records, the wins and the losses, it is clear that Baltimore is the better team. So why are they an underdog? They are on the road in Tampa tonight, but does that really justify Baltimore being an underdog?
For me, this is where the trap comes into play. Vegas, in my mind, wants us to take Baltimore which is why the line is so goddamn tasty. Because of this and my hatred toward Vegas, I am salivating at the Bucs, but get this.... so is everyone else including the sharps. Now this is a rare situation which we call a reverse trap, something that only happens once in a blue moon. When this occurs, you just have to put the pen down, sit back, and tip your cap to Vegas. They have completely fucked your mind, and you are left questioning if your very existence is real.
There are currently monkeys banging cymbals in my brain, but behind the noise, I hear a small voice, possibly Jiminy Cricket or maybe the start to my schizophrenia, but nonetheless, it is repeating the word: Bucs. I'm no doctor and will never claim to be, but when you hear voices, you follow them, so here we go, BUCS ML.
Along those lines, I believe that Brady will return with an abundance of production, and trusting that Baltimore will put up a fight, I also have taken the over of 46.
And why not throw a couple more units while we're at it on some props that we know won't hit, but will keep us thinking we're alive when our MoneyLine and over are dead in the water:
Fournette ATD
Andrews ATD
Succop o6.5 points
I hope you enjoyed the dive into Toxic's brain. I promise, despite constant criticism, that things are working up there. It is not just an endless abys, although, don't be surprised in my autopsy when they find the most severe case of CTE ever reported.
While you're at it, why don't you just sign up for PrizePicks with my code: WorstBets and get a free $100. Doesn't that sound good? Make a $100 parlay, if it hits, you're up big, if it losses, withdraw the $100, delete the app, and we won't talk about it.
As always, good luck, good scores,
and Godspeed!
-Toxic