Get ready to tee off into the excitement of the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow in Charlotte, North Carolina! As the anticipation builds for this prestigious event, the absence of world #1 Scottie Scheffler due to the impending birth of his first child only adds to the intrigue, setting the stage for a wide-open field and an unforgettable tournament.
In this comprehensive article, we will get into everything you need to know to maximize your betting potential. From a detailed course preview and a look back at past winners, to key statistics for predicting success, rankings of the field, and picks for both value plays and longshot bets. So settle in, and let's make this tournament not only thrilling to watch but also rewarding for your wallet. Enjoy the action and let's make some money!
Course Preview and Past Winners:
Quail Hollow Club, the esteemed host of the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship, boasts a rich history of challenging the world's best golfers since 2003. Having temporarily relinquished its hosting duties only twice, once for the prestigious PGA Championship in 2017 and again in 2020 due to the global pandemic, the course returns with its characteristic blend of beauty and difficulty.
Wyndham Clark, the reigning champion, seeks to defend his title against a field brimming with talent and experience. Amongst the contenders, Rory McIlroy stands out with an impressive three victories at this event, dating back to 2010, while Max Homa has tasted success twice, once at Quail Hollow. Notable past winners like Jason Day, Lucas Glover, Ricky Fowler, and Justin Thomas, who clinched the 2017 PGA Championship at this very course, add to the tournament's allure.
The layout, transformed into a par 71 for an added challenge, demands precision and power off the tee, with long approach shots often exceeding 175 yards. The lightning-fast greens introduce yet another layer of complexity, necessitating mastery in both putting and the delicate art of chipping and pitching. Adaptability and a strong scrambling game are invaluable assets, given the course's knack for placing players in precarious situations. As the Wells Fargo Championship unfolds, expect a thrilling showcase of skill, strategy, and determination on this iconic stage.
Key Statistical Categories:
When it comes to predicting success at the Wells Fargo Championship, certain statistics carry heightened significance on the challenging layout of Quail Hollow.
SG Off the Tee, SG Tee-to-Green, Driving Distance
First and foremost, driving prowess reigns supreme, with strokes gained off the tee and tee-to-green metrics serving as pivotal indicators of a player's potential. Given the course's emphasis on long and accurate driving, those who excel in this department hold a distinct advantage.
SG Approach the Green
Equally crucial is the ability to capitalize on approach shots, particularly considering the lengthier nature of these shots compared to the tour average. Success with long irons becomes paramount, underscoring the importance of strong performance in this area.
SG Around the Green
Furthermore, the lower greens in regulation percentage underscores the necessity for precision around the green, elevating the significance of proficiency in chipping and long-putting accuracy.
Scrambling
Scrambling proficiency emerges as a critical skill, given the inevitable challenges posed by Quail Hollow's length, difficult approach shots, and lower GIR percentage.
Par 4 Scoring
Lastly, while not as pivotal as other factors, a golfer's performance on par 4s, especially those exceeding 450 yards, can provide valuable insights into their ability to navigate the course's most abundant and demanding holes.
Data and Rankings:
I have recorded every player's 2024 rankings in the field on these statistical categories, averaged them out, and have ranked them accordingly.
*Aberg has withdrawn*
*Hovland's Data was not available on the PGA Website, but good thing he sucks lately*
All 6 Categories Averaged:
Player | Distance | SG T2G | SG Tee | SG APR G | SG ATG | SCRM | PAR 4 AVG |
Schauffele | 43 | 3 | 10 | 27 | 27 | 5 | 3 |
Jaeger | 20 | 17 | 16 | 89 | 7 | 26 | 20 |
Aberg* | 25 | 14 | 12 | 19 | 112 | 15 | 15 |
Matsuyama | 97 | 2 | 39 | 28 | 1 | 24 | 30 |
Noren | 127 | 9 | 30 | 45 | 12 | 1 | 7 |
SW Kim | 146 | 4 | 15 | 17 | 24 | 22 | 13 |
Kirk | 111 | 6 | 11 | 35 | 23 | 68 | 2 |
Clark | 6 | 11 | 14 | 39 | 57 | 3 | |
Bhatia | 92 | 13 | 34 | 6 | 102 | 31 | 15 |
Thomas | 34 | 8 | 81 | 7 | 24 | 93 | 68 |
Theegala | 51 | 23 | 21 | 38 | 108 | 47 | 30 |
Finau | 32 | 5 | 43 | 5 | 45 | 160 | 30 |
Kitayama | 40 | 25 | 25 | 34 | 125 | 29 | 77 |
McIlroy | 2 | 21 | 7 | 77 | 113 | 43 | 94 |
All Categories w/o Drive Distance:
Schauffele
Si Woo Kim
Noren
Matsuyama
Kirk
Jaeger
Aberg*
Bhatia
Glover
Clark
Theegala
Horschel
Henley
Thomas
Finau
All Categories w/o Par 4 Scoring:
Schauffele
Jaeger
Matsuyama
Aberg*
Noren
Si Woo Kim
Thomas
Kirk
Clark
McIlroy
Bhatia
Kitayama
Theegala
Finau
Horschel
All Categories w/o Driving Distance & Par 4 Scoring:
Schauffele
Si Woo Kim
Matsuyama
Noren
Kirk
Jaeger
Aberg*
Bhatia
Glover
Thomas
Henley
Theegala
Kitayama
Horschel
Morikawa
Adjusted Rankings with Current Form and History at Quail Hallow.
It is clear that Xander Schauffele excels in all the important statistical categories we are looking at, and the favorite Rory McIlroy, only excels with the driver.
However, there is more we have to look at to get a better predictive model! Recent form is always important, as well as past history on this course! This is where the subjectivity comes into play, and theres no way to correctly reward placement and recent form (without taking 40 hours to do so), but I have created what I believe a reasonable enough of a formula.
Recent wins at Quail Hollow are rewarded with a -2 in the averages, a 2nd place at Quail is -1, a top 5 finish is -0.5, and a top 10 finish is at -0.25.
Recent Form is also very important, and I have looked at the last 5 starts for each golfer. A missed cut is +0.75, a win is -1.5, top 5 is -0.25, top 10 is -0.1, and a top 25 is -0.05.
That is as fair as I can make it, and with that, here are my final rankings for the Wells Fargo Championship along with their current odds to win it:
*Odds via DraftKings at 5:40 PM on 5/7/2024
*Make sure to always line shop, especially in golf futers!
Best Outright Bets:
It is safe to say I am fading Rory McIlroy. He is the clear betting favorite and is coming off a win last weekend at the Zurich Classic (which is a two man scrammble of sorts, so isn't a true win). Rory just doesn't have the stats to do it this weekend, and the odds aren't good enough for me to take him.
It is important to note that Rory dominates this course, and holds the course record. He also has three wins, one 2nd, four Top 5, and seven Top 10's, in the last 13 years, but I love fading the favorite!
That brings us to our first outright bet, the clear 2nd favorite: Xander Schauffele (+900). 1.25 unit FREE BET
Xander is the clear statistical favorite this weekend, is 11/11 on cuts this year, and has three Top 8 finishes in his last five tournaments. He has yet to win this year, but I believe he can get it done this weekend!
The next outright bet is Hideki Matsuyama (+3500). 0.25 units
Hideki's last tournament was at The Masters where he finished a disappointing T38, but he has taken some time off and is back to prepare for the upcoming PGA Championship next week with the Wells Fargo this week. Matsuyama is hitting every statistical category for this tournament, already has a win on the year (Genesis Invitational), and has had four Top 12 finishes in his last five tournaments. The odds are too good to pass up!
My third and final outright winner is Si Woo Kim (+3000). 0.25 units
Si Woo Ranks third on my rankings and is also great value! He is 12/12 on cuts this year, and has eight Top 25 finishes. He only has one Top 10 finish, but this is going to be the tournament he final catches fire. He is always in the mix, and this is a great chance for him to go snag a crucial victory ahead of the 2nd Major of the year.
Placement Bets:
Top 5:
Schauffele (+220) 1u
Matsuyama (+650) 0.5u
Si Woo Kim (+650) 0.5u
Top 10:
Matsuyama (+300) 0.5u
Si Woo Kim (+280) 0.5u
Noren (+350) 0.25u
Jaeger (+400) 0.25u
Kirk (+450) 0.25u
Top 20:
Noren (+130) 0.5u
Jaeger (+165) 0.5u
Kirk (+180) 0.5u
Kitayama (+190) 0.5u
Horschel (+175 ) 0.5u
Longshots:
Noren (+4000) 0.1u
Jaeger (+4500) 0.1u
Kirk (+5500) 0.1u
Kitayama (+6000) 0.1u
Hovland (+2500) 0.25u
8.65 units risked (1.25 in Free Bets)
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